Insights

Insights

Interest Rate Regime Change

With all the news on the war in Ukraine, supply chain disruptions and rising commodity prices, it is easy to overlook what we believe is the most critical issue facing investors going forward, the regime change in interest rates. For almost all our careers we have invested in an environment of falling rates.  In fact, […]

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Outlook and Observations

What a surprising and wonderful year 2021 was for investors. We don’t know anyone who predicted or expected even close to the two years of returns investors have experienced, with a 28.7% total return of the S&P 500 in 2021, following the 18.7% return in 2020.1 The global pandemic and the subsequent response have changed […]

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Inflation and Wages

All eyes are currently on Washington and the outcomes of  potential legislation.  The future of tax policy, fiscal stimulus and infrastructure spending, and even the ever recurring side show of the debt ceiling discussions.  We believe we will have a new environment to navigate once we see the results of the political wrangling.  It’s often […]

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Inflation?

Is the inflation we are experiencing transitory?  Or have we started a new era of inflation?  We think this is a question that should be on investors’ minds as they consider investment positioning, asset allocation, and how to think about long-term returns.  We believe there may be an element of truth to both stances. The […]

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What’s Next?

What a crazy twelve months we have had!  Almost unbelievable, from the pandemic lows to new market highs.  In fact, after the March 2020 lows, it has been a straight uphill climb for the markets.  We now find euphoria replacing the rampant fear of the pandemic. Markets tend to be as emotional as they are […]

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Liquidity

New year, new President, new Congress. What will 2021 hold for us after such a tumultuous 2020? Given so much uncertainty in our world today, we understand the allure of making market predictions. The problem with predictions over the short-term though is that reality is illogical and random. No one, that we are aware of, […]

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Continued Distortions

It can be a struggle poring over charts and data, trying to find something poignant, timely and with some punch at each quarters end. Sometimes new substantive material can be hard to come by, especially when the deafening roar of “news” from so many multi-channel sources saturates people with daily narratives, some true, and some […]

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Is the Stock Market Crazy?

So it seems the most persistent myth of the stock market, and most common intellectual mistake in trying to understand the stock market, is to look at the real economy and project it upon the market. In fact, it would seem that the financial press makes a full-time job of maintaining the myth of that […]

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The Virus Panic of 2020

It’s hard not to reminisce about the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 – 09, while sitting at our desks reading headlines and trying to make sense of news flows. All the while, considering the very real implications to businesses who we have exposure to in both the debt and equity markets. Much like those crisis […]

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