Order of magnitude, which is an exponential change relative to a value or quantity, is often difficult to conceptualize. The world functions logarithmically, but as humans we are programmed to think linearly. To fully appreciate the effect of rising interest rates and the impact on markets, it’s helpful to consider the magnitude of the change […]

One challenge as an investor is recognizing that returns are lumpy. Ideally, to achieve an +8% annualized return, stocks would glide upwards on a smooth path of +8%, +8%, +8% each year, for example. Unfortunately, the market is often more like a roller coaster with a return path of +15%, -12%, +25% to achieve that […]

Bull markets are a lot more fun than bear markets.  This has been an understatement in 2022.  Though bear markets are normal events, we have had our share of market declines over the last 4 years.  The violent correction in the 4th quarter of 2018 was fast and quick.  The Covid panic of 2020 was […]

It’s been a grueling first half of the year, one of the worst since 1932, with the S&P total return at -19.96% as of June 30, 2022. 1 & 2 The irony is that the economy is still performing decently, with the labor market still having strength. These have been a very unusual few years […]

With all the news on the war in Ukraine, supply chain disruptions and rising commodity prices, it is easy to overlook what we believe is the most critical issue facing investors going forward, the regime change in interest rates. For almost all our careers we have invested in an environment of falling rates.  In fact, […]

What a surprising and wonderful year 2021 was for investors. We don’t know anyone who predicted or expected even close to the two years of returns investors have experienced, with a 28.7% total return of the S&P 500 in 2021, following the 18.7% return in 2020.1 The global pandemic and the subsequent response have changed […]

All eyes are currently on Washington and the outcomes of  potential legislation.  The future of tax policy, fiscal stimulus and infrastructure spending, and even the ever recurring side show of the debt ceiling discussions.  We believe we will have a new environment to navigate once we see the results of the political wrangling.  It’s often […]

Is the inflation we are experiencing transitory?  Or have we started a new era of inflation?  We think this is a question that should be on investors’ minds as they consider investment positioning, asset allocation, and how to think about long-term returns.  We believe there may be an element of truth to both stances. The […]

What a crazy twelve months we have had!  Almost unbelievable, from the pandemic lows to new market highs.  In fact, after the March 2020 lows, it has been a straight uphill climb for the markets.  We now find euphoria replacing the rampant fear of the pandemic. Markets tend to be as emotional as they are […]

New year, new President, new Congress. What will 2021 hold for us after such a tumultuous 2020? Given so much uncertainty in our world today, we understand the allure of making market predictions. The problem with predictions over the short-term though is that reality is illogical and random. No one, that we are aware of, […]