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Dating back to our firm’s inception in 2018, we rarely have felt compelled to put pen to paper to help make sense of substantial intra-quarter events, given our long term-investing mindset. As investors, we try to discern what is noise from what is impactful. Furthermore, we acknowledge there always feels like a reason to be […]

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times..” 1 -Charles Dickens As we reflect on the second quarter of 2024, it undoubtedly proved to be another solid quarter for risk assets as the S&P 500 Index delivered a total return of 4.3%2. All despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, the angst around growing […]

Recently a podcast host referenced a Charlie Brown comic book strip where Marcie, Linus, and Charlie Brown are lying on their backs looking at the clouds. Each character is asked what they see, and they all describe something wildly different. It’s easy to draw parallels to this comic book strip and how our central bank, […]

“Forecasts create the mirage that the future is knowable.” -Peter Bernstein, Economist1 Thirty-eight economists were polled by Bloomberg mid-December 2022 and asked to share their forecast on the odds of a recession in 2023. Seventy percent believed the US would enter a recession in 2023.2  This poll, while only one measure, was reflective of a […]

“Sell in May and Go Away” is an old stock market adage drawing attention to the seasonal weakness that typically occurs during the summer months relative to other time periods of the year. The origin is believed to date back hundreds of years to when investors would step away to enjoy the summer with loved […]

While mania and panic often follow one another, it’s difficult to recall experiencing both in one quarter, such as we did in the second quarter of 2023.  From the regional banking crisis to the current artificial intelligence (AI) mania, during the quarter the market swung from fear to elation. We have several dispassionate opinions on […]

Order of magnitude, which is an exponential change relative to a value or quantity, is often difficult to conceptualize. The world functions logarithmically, but as humans we are programmed to think linearly. To fully appreciate the effect of rising interest rates and the impact on markets, it’s helpful to consider the magnitude of the change […]

One challenge as an investor is recognizing that returns are lumpy. Ideally, to achieve an +8% annualized return, stocks would glide upwards on a smooth path of +8%, +8%, +8% each year, for example. Unfortunately, the market is often more like a roller coaster with a return path of +15%, -12%, +25% to achieve that […]

Bull markets are a lot more fun than bear markets.  This has been an understatement in 2022.  Though bear markets are normal events, we have had our share of market declines over the last 4 years.  The violent correction in the 4th quarter of 2018 was fast and quick.  The Covid panic of 2020 was […]

It’s been a grueling first half of the year, one of the worst since 1932, with the S&P total return at -19.96% as of June 30, 2022. 1 & 2 The irony is that the economy is still performing decently, with the labor market still having strength. These have been a very unusual few years […]